The Data-Centre Catch

TL;DR

• The World Economic Forum's September 2026 Chief Economists' Outlook, surveying economists across the public and private sectors between August 4 and 20, finds 56 percent now expect the global economy to stabilise or improve, a sharp reversal from the May edition, when 89 percent expected conditions to weaken.
• AI is described as the leading source of optimism: 97 percent expect adoption to keep rising and 69 percent expect it to deliver meaningful productivity gains, with data-centre investment alone seen reaching $7 trillion by 2030.
• But the same survey finds 61 percent of chief economists doubt the data-centre buildout will translate into meaningful job creation, while 78 percent expect it to push up electricity prices and 58 percent expect higher water prices.

Twice a year, the World Economic Forum asks chief economists from central banks, multilateral institutions, and large private-sector firms where the global economy is headed. The September 2026 edition, fielded between August 4 and 20, is more optimistic than the one before it: a majority now expect stability or improvement rather than deterioration, a sharp reversal from May. But the same respondents who are upbeat about growth are notably unconvinced that the investment driving much of it, AI infrastructure, will show up in payrolls the way past capital booms did.

A more confident economist, with one persistent doubt

WEF Chief Economists' Outlook, September 2026	Figure
Expect global economy to stabilise or improve	56% (vs. 89% expecting weakening in May)
Cite geopolitical conflict as a likely uncertainty source	97%
Expect AI adoption to keep rising	97%
Expect AI to deliver meaningful productivity gains	69%
Global data-centre investment by 2030	~$7 trillion
Expect data-centre investment to drive a significant share of growth	78%
Do not expect the buildout to create meaningful jobs	61%
Expect data-centre expansion to push up electricity prices	78%
Expect it to push up water prices	58%
Expect significant local community backlash to data centres	79%

The pattern across the table is consistent: chief economists see AI capital spending as one of the more durable engines behind an improving growth outlook, yet they are, on balance, skeptics rather than believers when the question turns specifically to employment. Fiscal support tells a similar story of eroding confidence elsewhere in the survey: 69 percent credit it with propping up the economy since 2020, but only 28 percent expect it to keep doing so over the next year, a gap the report flags as one of the larger risks to the improving outlook.

Growth without the jobs, and utility bills instead

Data-centre expansion is expected to drive a significant share of global growth, but a majority of chief economists do not expect it to create meaningful jobs, and instead expect it to raise the electricity and water prices faced by everyone else in the surrounding economy.

That is the core tension in this edition of the survey: an investment boom large enough to be macroeconomically significant, concentrated in facilities that employ relatively few people once built, sited in communities that will feel the utility-cost and land-use effects whether or not local employment follows. It is the capex-to-jobs disconnect that has shown up in sector-level labour data through 2026, restated here as the explicit, majority expectation of the economists closest to the investment decisions themselves.

What this means for leaders

• Do not size local workforce or hiring plans on data-centre investment announcements alone; a majority of chief economists themselves expect the link between AI capex and job creation to be weak.
• If your operations sit near planned or existing data-centre capacity, model electricity and water cost increases into multi-year budgets now; 78 and 58 percent of economists respectively expect these to rise as a direct result of the buildout.
• Treat "AI investment scrutiny" as a named macro risk, not a niche one; alongside geopolitical conflict and fading fiscal support, it is one of the few risk factors this survey calls out explicitly as capable of derailing an otherwise improving outlook.
• Watch community response to data-centre siting as a leading indicator; 79 percent of economists expect significant local backlash, which can delay or reshape projects buyers are counting on.

Related reading

• WEF Economists Reveal AI Boom's Catch: Data Centres Could Raise Power and Water Costs Without Big Jobs Boost (IBTimes UK)
• When AI capex becomes macro: what the buildout means for buyers

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Source: Chief Economists' Outlook: September 2026, World Economic Forum.